Playoffs is just around the corner and what better way to celebrate
the end of the long-grinding, 82-game season than reflect on the
abundance of feel-good stories. Here’s seven of them, ladies and
gentlemen:
1. Bulls missing the post-season.
Before the Chicago Bulls decides to flip the Tom Thibodeau chapter
in their books, experts assumed that the drop-off on defense will simply
be compensated by a free-flowing, spacing-oriented offense under Billy
Donovan.
*Buzzer sounds* Wrong!
Injuries on Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler and practically
everyone wearing the red and white jersey did not help as well as the
reported in-fighting and dissatisfaction of the players with their new
coach. As a result, they will miss the trip to the playoffs for the
first time since 2008.
2. The Rooks…
“Exceptional” is one word I can think of.
The 2016 Rookie Class has as many as EIGHT players that have All-Star
potential (Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, D’Angelo Russell,
Emmanuel Mudiay, Myles Turner, Jahlil Okafor etc.) and each of those
deserves a slot at the All-Rookie first team. And we don’t have to
mention a couple more that could break out in the near future (Trey
Lyles, Bobby Portis, Josh Richardson).
Karl-Anthony Towns is having a historically great season, averaging a
double-double and a shoo-in for the top rookie honors. The past month,
he is averaging 21.9 points and 10.5 rebounds. Not even Kevin Garnett
had numbers of those magnitude as a rookie in Minnesota!
it’s clear his bread-and-butter is NOT scoring. There are a
gazillion of NBA players right now who have better single-game
career-high in points than the San Antonio forward (Kawhi’s career high
is 32 points, by the way) . This guy has a lot of time so he took the liberty to list down ALL of the players mentioned.
2. Strictly talking about assists, John Stockton is in a league of his own.
The Utah Jazz legend has averaged at least 13.5 assists for FIVE
CONSECUTIVE SEASONS. In comparison, Magic Johnson only had one season
where he averaged 13 assists an outing, and that was the ’83-’84 season.
3. Marcus Smart, you can stop shooting threes now.
For the season, Smart has taken 215 three-pointers, and
has hit just 54 of them, for a .254 3PT%. In the history of the NBA,
1,943 players have taken at least 200 three-pointers in an individual
season. The highest percentage hit was Tim Legler’s .522 3PT% in
1995-1996 (128-for-245). The worst of those 1,943, right now, is Marcus
Smart this season. Smart is literally enduring the worst season shooting
three pointers in NBA history.
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
We could not always get what we want, that’s a given, but sometimes
expectations do hurt. These 5 guys probably did not do your fantasy
feelings any favor.
Here are this mid-season’s fantasy basketball disappointments:
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2016 Mid-Season
Fantasy Basketball Disappointments
We could not always get what we want, that’s a given, but sometimes
expectations do hurt. These 5 guys probably did not do your fantasy
feelings any favor.
Here are this mid-season’s fantasy basketball disappointments:
Players do play extra hard on contract years and one they sign
contracts, that’s another story. Sometimes. Such as the case with Green,
who was one of the NBA’s top shooters and feared perimeter defenders as
far back as 2015. All his numbers are down from across the board and
his net rating is the lowest since his second NBA season. 2014-15 averages: 11.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.1 blocks, 2.4 3PM 2015-16 averages: 7.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.5 3PM
Kyle Korver, SF, Atlanta Hawks
Judging by the numbers alone, Kyle Korver
is unrecognizable. All the stats that made him to what he is are all
but gone– even the FT% is down around EIGHT percentage points. More bad
news is that, Korver exhibits no signs of life. He is even worse the
last 15 days, averaging only 7.3 points on 34.6 percent shooting.
So much for someone who have flirted on being 50-50-90 guy a season before.
To give you an idea of how much Lawson’s production has dwindled, think the Lance Stephenson
from Indiana to Charlotte variety. From a lead guy that was constantly
among the league leaders in assists, Lawson has been reduced to just
another body at that Rockets bench.
After a promising start that had them
flirting with the top seed out East, the Toronto Raptors stumbled on
their way to the playoffs and suffered a first-round exit against the
Washington Wizards.
The team’s make-up is crystal clear, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan was the primary shot creators while Jonas Valanciunas
was supposed to be the inside threat. However, the Raptors weren’t
about to scare any other team defensively anytime soon which prompted GM
Masai Ujiri to pull the trigger on some moves.
They got DeMarre Carroll on board at 15 million a season for the next four years, and signed Luis Scola, Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, and Anthony Bennett
through various and separate deals. They also drafted Norman Powell and
Delon Wright which fits exactly well into the new defense-first
philosophy, at least, roster-wise. Just to get it out there, the team is
8th-worst in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.
Lastly, Amir Johnson and Lou Williams have already left.
Breakout Candidate: Jonas Valanciunas
The Lithuanian big man has been on the
sleeper list for as long fantasyheads remember and one reason he hasn’t
realize his potential yet is because he is not who they’re looking for
on offense most of the time. Valanciunas is a capable low-post operator
who won’t hurt your percentages even when he’s at the charity line
(78.6%).
Williams’ and Greivis Vasquez’ combined
20.4 attempts are gone so at least a half of those going Valanciunas’
way could be the big boost we are looking for.
Bust Candidate: Terrence Ross
via Raptors Cage
Simply put, Terrence Ross doesn’t fit the
defensive mantra the Raptors are desperately trying to take on. The
former eighth overall pick hasn’t picked up on a solid second year with a
relatively poor showing last season (9.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1
assist, 41% FG). Carroll will be there to take over the other wing spot
beside DeRozan and that doesn’t bode well for the University of
Washington product and his fantasy stock.
I don’t hate advanced stats as much as Charles Barkley, nor am I making it my mistress like Daryl Morey.
I like to think that I’m a reasonable guy– a balanced one if you
will– but if you dig fantasy basketball, you have to be more Morey than
Barkley. If you think like Sir Chuck in fantasy, you might as well draft
up until the third round and leave. On the other hand, if you’re Morey,
you find specialized value up until the last pick, which can
potentially help you out in the long run.
As much as it is true about season-long leagues, it can also be
applied in daily fantasy basketball, too. It’s very important to use
stats like Defense vs Position (DvP), Effective Field Goal Percentage
(eFG%), Usage Rate , and Pace.
This piece is dedicated for PACE and it’s easy to see why.
What is Pace?
According to one dictionary,
pace is “the speed in which something happens”. In basketball, teams
are not created equal, and therefore, the pace in which they prefer to
play also varies. For example, Golden State likes to run opponents to
the ground with an offensive onslaught from all angles, mainly relying
on Steph Curry to set the table and create shots for
himself and his teammates. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies lean heavily
on a bruising frontcourt and because they have Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, it doesn’t make sense if they’d play fast.
Pace in Fantasy Basketball: The Memphis Grizzlies play with Marc
Gasol and Zach Randolph making them one of the slowest teams in the
league. Photo Source
Why is it important?
There’s a reason why the “7 seconds or less” era in Phoenix made so many fantasy stars in Arizona. Or George Karl-coached
teams having the best fantasy sources in all of basketball.
Conventional wisdom suggests the more offensive possessions a team has
in 48 minutes, chances for accumulating stats go up.
And stats, my dear friends, is what fantasy basketball is all about.
NBA’s Fastest Teams
The aforementioned Warriors currently leads all teams with 101.1
possessions per 48 minutes, followed by Phoenix (99.4), Houston (99.1),
Boston (98.8) and Denver (98.4).
The last two, being very young squads, are a bit too inconsistent to
be relied upon, especially on a daily basis, but their roster
construction and PACE give us some fantasy surprises here and there. The
first trio is where you can bet your money, be it on season-long and
daily fantasy leagues.
It’s no coincidence that over the past 15 days, Houston boasts three players in the top 21 in ESPN’s Player Rater (James Harden, Terrence Jones, and Trevor Ariza) while another three sneaks into the top 100 (Donatas Motiejunas, Jason Terry, and Josh Smith).
NBA Conference Finals Preview And Complete Predictions
One thing is for sure: the Larry O’Brien trophy will change hands soon and I couldn’t be any happier.
After a riotous 82-game regular season,
excitingly boring set of first round series and nail-biting finishes
galore in the conference semifinals, we are down to four teams.
Golden State’s Steph Curry and Houston Rockets’ James Harden
looks to add to the league’s more anticipated one-on-one matchups in
recent memory while the team-oriented Atlanta Hawks will try to solve
the supposed one-man band in Cleveland when the NBA conference finals
rolls in.
Somewhere, somehow, someone is not liking this. Phil Jackson, anyone?
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview
As soon as LeBron James decided to return home and “orchestrated” the trade of Kevin Love
from Minnesota to Cleveland, the Cavaliers’ chances of landing in the
Finals seemed more sure than death and taxes. True, there were some
bumps in the early to midseason which of course provided more ammunition
from haters to shoot James down from head to foot, but the underrated
trades for Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert, and J.R. Smith helped settle the rocky boat. (The Cavs were 19-17 before the Shumpert-Smith deal and has gone 34-12 since.)
But no matter how we argue about the
importance of role players in Cleveland, there’s no mistaken who’s in
the driver seat behind the wheel. James has been averaging an Oscar Robertson-like
26.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 7.9 assists, terrorizing opponents from
the perimeter, on the inside, and even with just his passing skills.
In the closeout game versus Chicago on
the road, LeBron (11 assists) was content to shift the limelight away
from him when it comes to putting the ball in the basket (there’s no
other way if you’re shooting 7 of 23), letting Matthew Dellavedova, Shumpert, Smith, and to a lesser extent, Tristan Thompson shoulder the scoring load.
Players outside of James and Kyrie Irving is the key to this series because even in the playoffs, Atlanta rarely maxes out minutes from key guys (Kyle Korver leads the team in MPG in the playoffs with 38.1) and hands out playing time to four more guys other than the starting five. Dennis Schroder (19.8), Kent Bazemore (16.5), Pero Antic (14.6) and either Mike Muscala and Mike Scott could get anywhere between 10-12 minutes a game depending which Mike Budenholzer seems fit.
NBA Conference Finals: How the Cleveland Cavaliers deal with Jeff Teague is a puzzle half solved.
Cleveland is already without Kevin Love
while Irving is limping all over Quicken Loans and the United Center
and they couldn’t afford the All-Star point guard to be ineffective
against a very solid and stable Hawks backcourt. Actually, against a
very poised and equally (if not more) well-coached team like Atlanta
has.
While they don’t have a particular
dump-the-ball-and-we’ll-get-out-of-the-way kind of guy, the Hawks are
very good at finding open shots on ANY situation with superb
precision-passing, spacing, and personnel movement. On their eight
playoff wins, Atlanta assisted almost a ridiculous 69% on made baskets
and the drop-off even during losses is so minimal (67.5%) that you can
see from a mile away what they’ll do. The catch is, of course, how you
can stop them.
An engaged Jeff Teague is a handful. Ask the Wizards.
Prediction: Atlanta in 7
Western Conference Finals Preview
NBA Conference Finals: Where Steph Curry’s stroke goes, so does the Warriors.
Shootout. Hide the women and the children and that’s all we need to know.
There’s no reason to believe the Houston
Rockets are going to slow the tempo down anytime soon. Last time they
did that, they found themselves in a 1-3 hole.
