Saturday, October 10, 2015

Fantasy Basketball Team Preview: Toronto Raptors

After a promising start that had them flirting with the top seed out East, the Toronto Raptors stumbled on their way to the playoffs and suffered a first-round exit against the Washington Wizards.
The team’s make-up is crystal clear, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan was the primary shot creators while Jonas Valanciunas was supposed to be the inside threat. However, the Raptors weren’t about to scare any other team defensively anytime soon which prompted GM Masai Ujiri to pull the trigger on some moves.
They got DeMarre Carroll on board at 15 million a season for the next four years, and signed Luis Scola, Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, and Anthony Bennett through various and separate deals. They also drafted Norman Powell and Delon Wright which fits exactly well into the new defense-first philosophy, at least, roster-wise. Just to get it out there, the team is 8th-worst in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.
Lastly, Amir Johnson and Lou Williams have already left.

Breakout Candidate: Jonas Valanciunas

The Lithuanian big man has been on the sleeper list for as long fantasyheads remember and one reason he hasn’t realize his potential yet is because he is not who they’re looking for on offense most of the time. Valanciunas is a capable low-post operator who won’t hurt your percentages even when he’s at the charity line (78.6%).
Williams’ and Greivis Vasquez’ combined 20.4 attempts are gone so at least a half of those going Valanciunas’ way could be the big boost we are looking for.

Bust Candidate: Terrence Ross

via Raptors Cage
Simply put, Terrence Ross doesn’t fit the defensive mantra the Raptors are desperately trying to take on. The former eighth overall pick hasn’t picked up on a solid second year with a relatively poor showing last season (9.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1 assist, 41% FG). Carroll will be there to take over the other wing spot beside DeRozan and that doesn’t bode well for the University of Washington product and his fantasy stock.

Friday, July 10, 2015

The Importance of Team Pace in Fantasy Basketball


The Importance of Team Pace in Fantasy Basketball

 

I don’t hate advanced stats as much as Charles Barkley, nor am I making it my mistress like Daryl Morey.
I like to think that I’m a reasonable guy– a balanced one if you will– but if you dig fantasy basketball, you have to be more Morey than Barkley. If you think like Sir Chuck in fantasy, you might as well draft up until the third round and leave. On the other hand, if you’re Morey, you find specialized value up until the last pick, which can potentially help you out in the long run.
As much as it is true about season-long leagues, it can also be applied in daily fantasy basketball, too. It’s very important to use stats like Defense vs Position (DvP), Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), Usage Rate , and Pace.
This piece is dedicated for PACE and it’s easy to see why.

What is Pace?

According to one dictionary, pace is “the speed in which something happens”. In basketball, teams are not created equal, and therefore, the pace in which they prefer to play also varies. For example, Golden State likes to run opponents to the ground with an offensive onslaught from all angles, mainly relying on Steph Curry to set the table and create shots for himself and his teammates. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies lean heavily on a bruising frontcourt and because they have Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, it doesn’t make sense if they’d play fast.
Pace in Fantasy Basketball: The Memphis Grizzlies play with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph making them one of the slowest teams in the league. Photo Source

Why is it important?

There’s a reason why the “7 seconds or less” era in Phoenix made so many fantasy stars in Arizona. Or George Karl-coached teams having the best fantasy sources in all of basketball. Conventional wisdom suggests the more offensive possessions a team has in 48 minutes, chances for accumulating stats go up.
And stats, my dear friends, is what fantasy basketball is all about.

NBA’s Fastest Teams

The aforementioned Warriors currently leads all teams with 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes, followed by Phoenix (99.4), Houston (99.1), Boston (98.8) and Denver (98.4).
The last two, being very young squads, are a bit too inconsistent to be relied upon, especially on a daily basis, but their roster construction and PACE give us some fantasy surprises here and there. The first trio is where you can bet your money, be it on season-long and daily fantasy leagues.
It’s no coincidence that over the past 15 days, Houston boasts three players in the top 21 in ESPN’s Player Rater (James Harden, Terrence Jones, and Trevor Ariza) while another three sneaks into the top 100 (Donatas Motiejunas, Jason Terry, and Josh Smith).

 

Sunday, May 31, 2015

NBA Conference Finals Preview And Complete Predictions

NBA Conference Finals Preview And Complete Predictions

One thing is for sure: the Larry O’Brien trophy will change hands soon and I couldn’t be any happier.
After a riotous 82-game regular season, excitingly boring set of first round series and nail-biting finishes galore in the conference semifinals, we are down to four teams.
Golden State’s Steph Curry and Houston Rockets’ James Harden looks to add to the league’s more anticipated one-on-one matchups in recent memory while the team-oriented Atlanta Hawks will try to solve the supposed one-man band in Cleveland when the NBA conference finals rolls in.
Somewhere, somehow, someone is not liking this. Phil Jackson, anyone?

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview

As soon as LeBron James decided to return home and “orchestrated” the trade of Kevin Love from Minnesota to Cleveland, the Cavaliers’ chances of landing in the Finals seemed more sure than death and taxes. True, there were some bumps in the early to midseason which of course provided more ammunition from haters to shoot James down from head to foot, but the underrated trades for Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert, and J.R. Smith helped settle the rocky boat. (The Cavs were 19-17 before the Shumpert-Smith deal and has gone 34-12 since.)
But no matter how we argue about the importance of role players in Cleveland, there’s no mistaken who’s in the driver seat behind the wheel. James has been averaging an Oscar Robertson-like 26.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 7.9 assists, terrorizing opponents from the perimeter, on the inside, and even with just his passing skills.
In the closeout game versus Chicago on the road, LeBron (11 assists) was content to shift the limelight away from him when it comes to putting the ball in the basket (there’s no other way if you’re shooting 7 of 23), letting Matthew Dellavedova, Shumpert, Smith, and to a lesser extent, Tristan Thompson shoulder the scoring load.
Players outside of James and Kyrie Irving is the key to this series because even in the playoffs, Atlanta rarely maxes out minutes from key guys (Kyle Korver leads the team in MPG in the playoffs with 38.1) and hands out playing time to four more guys other than the starting five. Dennis Schroder (19.8), Kent Bazemore (16.5), Pero Antic (14.6) and either Mike Muscala and Mike Scott could get anywhere between 10-12 minutes a game depending which Mike Budenholzer seems fit.
NBA Conference Finals: How the Cleveland Cavaliers deal with Jeff Teague is a puzzle half solved.
Cleveland is already without Kevin Love while Irving is limping all over Quicken Loans and the United Center and they couldn’t afford the All-Star point guard to be ineffective against a very solid and stable Hawks backcourt. Actually, against a very poised and equally (if not more) well-coached team like Atlanta has.
While they don’t have a particular dump-the-ball-and-we’ll-get-out-of-the-way kind of guy, the Hawks are very good at finding open shots on ANY situation with superb precision-passing, spacing, and personnel movement. On their eight playoff wins, Atlanta assisted almost a ridiculous 69% on made baskets and the drop-off even during losses is so minimal (67.5%) that you can see from a mile away what they’ll do. The catch is, of course, how you can stop them.

An engaged Jeff Teague is a handful. Ask the Wizards.
Prediction: Atlanta in 7

Western Conference Finals Preview

NBA Conference Finals: Where Steph Curry’s stroke goes, so does the Warriors.
Shootout. Hide the women and the children and that’s all we need to know.
There’s no reason to believe the Houston Rockets are going to slow the tempo down anytime soon. Last time they did that, they found themselves in a 1-3 hole.


Friday, January 9, 2015

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy

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